Yang Delong: How to arrange investment opportunities in the next stage?
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Sina Finance News On Tuesday, February 18, the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showed a trend of shock adjustment. They did not continue the previous strong upswing, mainly because the A-share market rebounded rapidly after the Spring Festival, a large amount of funds were entered, and the index gradually rebounded rapidly.When the exponent is close to the 3,000-point integer mark, it is quite normal that a certain part of the shock appears.
The current managing director and chief economist of the Qianhai Open Source Foundation, Yang Delong, is a guest on Sina Finance Live. The following is an overview of how to arrange investment opportunities for the next stage. In the short term, the market is indeed strong, and many sectors have accumulated the most gains.Victory disks, some sectors like new energy vehicles, and science and technology, which I suggest everyone to focus on, have already achieved a very high rise. The pressure on profit-taking has been overcome. It may need to be adjusted before there will be the next step.opportunity.
In particular, the technology sector has performed very prominently recently. After experiencing the GEM index, it even regained the lost ground caused by the epidemic, and further upswing has emerged a very strong trend. Many subdivided technology industries have gone very strong.Including technologies such as the Internet, chips, artificial intelligence, new energy, etc., these technology sectors have come out of a strong trend.
If we look at the trend of the technology sector after the Spring Festival, it will be a bull market trend with very obvious characteristics.
Although the market fluctuated on Tuesday, we see that the GEM index is still relatively strong, which actually reflects everyone’s expectations for the future, that is, the traditional industry is gradually shrinking or even exiting the historical stage, and emerging industries have started to rise. Last year, IAs everyone has repeatedly predicted, it is necessary to configure consumer and securities companies in traditional industries and technology leading stocks in emerging industries. In the future, traditional white horse stocks and emerging white 武汉夜生活网 horse stocks will form a trend that forms a two-line outline.In realizing my prediction at that time, the consumption of white horse stocks and the brokerage white horse stocks on the combined portraits have performed strongly in the past few years, and the market value has become larger and larger, becoming an important pillar to support A shares. In addition, even emerging industries have begun to rise.The economic sector has formed an important pillar. Of course, the pillars of the emerging sector are not particularly strong and it will take time to gradually grow, but the growth of future performance will gradually digest the overestimation of these technology stocks, because their performance will be preliminary.Pick up, thereby digesting estimates.
This dual-pillar pattern may be a feature of the A-share market for 南京夜网 many years to come, so whether you like white horse stocks in traditional industries or technology leading stocks in emerging industries, you can find your ideal investment target.Are all useful places.
Of course, for some heavy industries and low-end export industries in the industrial era, they may gradually shrink and even withdraw from the historical stage. Therefore, these traditional cyclical stocks have only pulsed opportunities, staged opportunities, and it is difficult to have long-term investment opportunities.Talk about industries like steel, chemical, nonferrous metals, coal, and oxides in the industrialized era. It is difficult to have trend opportunities in these industries. For example, the cement building materials in construction are relatively growing industries, but some are large.The construction of the building is also gradually undergoing construction, so there are not many investment opportunities.
And the traditional and large sectors of banks and real estate have also passed the stage of high profit growth and entered a stage of stable growth in performance. Due to their large market value, they lack flexibility and substantial conversion, so like banks,In the real estate sector, in fact, it is difficult to have a big performance.
This is the current pattern of the A-share market and the direction of future development. You can focus on the opportunity to consume white horse stocks, brokerages, and emerging technology stocks, also known as emerging blue chip stocks.
As the barometer of the economy, the stock market is closely related to changes in the economic cycle, and also to the characteristics of the economy at different stages. For example, in 2003, why were the five golds represented by automobiles and steel at that time?Spending has grown significantly because it was an era of industrialization at that time, and these industries grew by leaps and bounds.
Earlier, in the 1990s, the home appliance industry grew rapidly, because it was a stage when home appliances entered the family and the era of the commodity economy. At that time, shopping malls were also very good investment targets, but now after e-commerceWe see that the physical store has become a fitting room, so at this time the mall is not a good investment opportunity.
By the time of the big bull market in 2006 and 2007, finance and real estate were the best investment opportunities at that time, and nonferrous metals and coal were even more dazzling. At that time, when the climax of industrialization, a lot of investment in infrastructure construction, a lot ofThe development of real estate requires a lot of nonferrous, coal upstream resources.
Until 2013, technology stocks started to rise, and emerging industries began to rise, because at that time our economy had gradually entered the era of industrialization from technology to the era where technology led the future. Technology companies, emerging industries, these growth stocks became the object of capital chasing, and then started businesses.The board was out of the big bull market at that time. The GEM index rose from a minimum of 586 points to 4,000 points. It can be said that the increase was huge, and there were many 10-fold bull stocks.
Of course, by the time of the bull market in 2015, the GEM was overhyped by funds. There were many leveraged funds that speculated the GEM index to a price-earnings ratio of more than 120 times, exceeding the price-earnings ratio of the 2001 US bubble when the bubble burst.The relatively large drop, squeezed the bubble, fell to 1200 points, seeing the historical bottom.
Now the rise of emerging technology stocks is actually experiencing survival of the fittest. After the big waves, some really good growth stocks have begun to rise, and they have started to receive the attention of the capital. The big waves have begun to see gold, and the yellow sand has begun to see gold.The growth stocks that come out later may have more growth opportunities in the future.
Therefore, when you invest, you must adhere to the concept of value investment and seize the opportunity for sustainable growth in the future, because we look at the future, not just the past. The glory of the past can only represent its past market value and future growth.The future market value expansion depends on future growth, so why do I tell you that we must focus on the future, configure traditional and growth industries such as consumer white horse stocks and brokerage stocks, and configure emerging growth stocks.
Also known as emerging blue chips, it is because they will have a lot of room for growth in the future, with a long track for growth.
Only companies that can grow in the future, or companies that can grow further, will have good investment opportunities.
In terms of securities dealers, the state requires the creation of aircraft carrier-grade securities dealers.
The A-share market is now the second largest capital market in the world. Changing the opening of the A-share market to more and more foreign exchanges does not rule out that the A-share market will one day be comparable to the US stock market. In this case, the A-share market appears.It is not necessarily impossible for trillion-level leading brokerage firms. Of course, this must have experienced the great development of the capital market and the merger and reorganization of the brokerage industry, as well as the sturgeon effect after the entry of foreign brokerage firms, and some brokerage firms have the opportunity to develop.
The A-share market has now experienced the impact of the epidemic, and now the number of daily diagnosed patients has trended downward. It is optimistic that by the end of this month, you can see the effective spread of the epidemic can be controlled, and the number of daily diagnosed patients has dropped toHundreds of people, even later, will be under control by next month. With this expectation, the market’s room for decline is very limited, and the short-term market adjustment need not be overly concerned, and the market opportunity is still reduced.