BTG Hotel (600258) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Results Meet Expectations 19-Year Opening Guidelines Exceed Expectations

BTG Hotel (600258) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Results Meet Expectations 19-Year Opening Guidelines Exceed Expectations
[Investment Highlights]On April 17, the company released the 2018 annual report, and the company’s 2018 operating income was 85.39 ppm, an increase of ten years.45%; net profit attributable to mother 8.5.7 billion, an increase of 35 in ten years.84%, realized non-net profit deduction6.9 billion, an increase of 15 in ten years.99%, the difference between the two is mainly the disposal of 20% of Yanjing Hotel’s investment income and government subsidies, the performance basically in line with expectations. The growth of franchised hotel business accelerated, and impairment of goodwill dragged down Q4 performance.Among the various business segments, the hotel management business (affiliate stores) grew faster, increasing by 10 per year.7%, the hotel operating business (direct-operated stores) revenue decreased due to the impact of closed stores closed down 0.33%, gross profit margin fell 0 in ten years.48 points, the reason is that the hotel increased the promotion of breakfast delivery to attract customers, resulting in 都市夜网 an increase in catering costs by 3 compared with the previous year.95%.Scenic spot business is driven by the increase in ticket retention ratio and passenger flow to drive revenue increase1.26%.In the fourth quarter, the company’s revenue / performance / deductible non-performance was +3 respectively.1% /-31.01% /-48.41%, the sharp decline in performance was mainly due to the accrual of impairment of the goodwill of Nanyuan Hotel by 81.9 million. The performance of mid- to high-end hotels is not as good as that of budget hotels due to new store openings, and the Revpar growth rate in the second half of the year.The overall Revpar of Home Inns grew by 4 per year in 2018.2%, the improvement of the hotel structure is the main driving force for the promotion. In terms of breakdown, the Revpar of economy hotels increased by 1.9%, 重庆桑拿网 Revpar continued to drop 5% due to the impact of new stores.In terms of quarters, the growth rate of Home Inn Q1-Q4 Revpar was 4 respectively.0% / 5.6% / 4.1% / 2.8%, Revpar’s performance in the second half was inferior to the first half, mainly due to macroeconomic impact.In 2018, the company opened 622 new stores and a net increase of 337 hotels. The hotel structure is further tilted towards high-end and franchise hotels.As of the end of 2018, the company had a total of 4,049 hotels, of which 3025/720/304 were budget / high-end / other, accounting for 74.7% / 17.8% / 7.5%, 925/3124 directly operated / joined, respectively, accounting for 22.8% / 77.2%. The store opening plan surpassed expectations to boost 2019 performance growth.The company’s operating revenue indicator for 2019 is 86-88 trillion, and the growth rate is affected by the closure of direct stores. The number of newly opened stores is 800, of which 50% + are high-end and 95% + are franchise stores.Significant acceleration in the year (planned to open 450 stores in 2018, and actually opened 622 stores).Franchise expansion will become the main growth point of the company’s 2019 performance.The company’s incentive mechanism is constantly improved, and the evaluation standards are linked to the progress of mid-to-high-end store openings. At the same time, the company and the high-end hotel group Hyatt Hotel set up a joint venture to build mid-to-high-end hotels, which is conducive to the company’s shortcomings in the mid-to-high-end layout and brings the companyLook at it for a long time. [Investment suggestion]We slightly revise the 19-year profit forecast (downgrade the 19-year assumption on the occupancy rate and increase the assumption of the number of new stores), and expect the company to achieve revenues of 86 in 2019/2020/2021.79/89.12/91.2.3 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 10 respectively.17/11.82/12.8.3 billion, with EPS of 1.04/1.21/1.31 yuan, corresponding to P / E of 21/18/17, maintaining the “overweight” level. [Risk warning]The macro economy continues to decline; new store expansion is less than expected.

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