CITIC Construction Investment: downward interest rate is the core of the capital market in 2020
2020 Investment Strategy Report: Winding Paths Are Gradually Getting Better Source: CITIC Construction Investors: Zhang Yulong / Luo Yongfeng / Zang Yingshun / Gan Yangke Take China’s deleveraging work to gradually become stable, prevent financial risks, and commercial banks startIn order to replenish the capital, the 2019 A-shares ended the unilateral downward trend in 2018, and entered a process of large-scale shock upward movement. Until December 13, the Shanghai Stock Index began to gradually 苏州夜网论坛 increase by about 19%.It has increased by about 38% since the beginning, and the GEM index has increased by about 40% since the beginning.
(1) Economic analysis Preventing risks, stable growth and controlling potential will be the policy goals of 2020.
First, the maturity scale of local debt (local debt + urban investment bonds) is about 3 in 2020.
7 trillion, an increase of 10% over 2019.
Doing a good job of budget debt replacement is the first task to prevent risks.
Only this, the level of economic growth in 2020 needs to be maintained at 6.
0% to achieve economic growth goals.
Then, doing a good job of counter-cyclical adjustment will become an important content in the first half of 2020.
Under such conditions, we expect that certain periodic opportunities will exist in the cyclical industries such as infrastructure 天津夜网 and real estate.
Third, the gradual level needs to be achieved through structural policies such as increasing pork supply, which will naturally ease in the second half of 2020.
(B) Policy Choices From the perspective of policy choices, continuing to push down interest rate levels is the best choice for monetary policy.
Second, adopting proactive fiscal policies to underpin the economy will be of great help to enterprises to improve their profit levels.
Therefore, the downward trend in interest rates is the core line of economic operation and capital markets in 2020.
From a reform perspective, the 2020 GEM registration system reform and the new third board reform will become the focus of capital market reform.
Whether it is mergers, acquisitions or restructurings or IPOs, capital strength will increase, and securities firms with strong investment banking capabilities will become the most beneficial direction.
(III) Investment strategy In 2019, when the index fluctuates significantly, the structure of the bull market will be different. In 2020, the market may show a narrow range of fluctuations, and the slow bull market will gradually rise, forming a kind of winding path.Good state.
Falling interest rates, countercyclical adjustments and capital market reforms are the three main lines of 2020.
In the process of gradual decline of interest rates, the value level of the stock market will be increased. The decline in interest rates is conducive to the continued growth estimates of the electronics, computer, communications, and media technology industries. The decline in interest rates is also conducive to the decline in corporate financing costs and promote investment in advanced manufacturing.; Also attractive to the leading dividend sector.
These are the three directions we recommend investors to grasp first in 2020.
The counter-cyclical adjustment will form a certain level of support for commodities in the first half of 2020. Periodic industries such as machinery and building materials will present certain phase opportunities.
Capital market reforms, the development of direct financing, and head brokers with strong investment banking capabilities will also perform well.